Composite ranking based on season volume, recent form, and TOI. 70+ = elite target, 50-70 = strong, under 35 = avoid.

Three form windows. The model weights them L3 (45%) + L5 (35%) + season (20%) — recent games matter most for props.

Compares L5 time on ice to season average. A positive trend means the coach is deploying this player more lately — strong signal for increased shot volume.

Many players shoot significantly more at home. Once 4+ games of split data exist, the model blends in the venue-specific average (35% weight).

How this player has performed against tonight's specific opponent. In playoffs where teams play each other repeatedly, this is one of the strongest signals available.

Auto-computed from all game logs — how many SOG does tonight's opponent allow per game on average vs league average (28.5). Adjusts lambda up to ±25%.

Composite ranking for assist props. 70+ = strong playmaker in good form, 50-70 = solid, under 35 = avoid.

Three form windows weighted L3 (45%) + L5 (35%) + season (20%). For assist props, recent form is especially important — playmakers run hot and cold in streaks.

L5 ice time vs season average. Players seeing increased deployment — especially on the power play — post higher assist numbers.

Assist rates can vary significantly by venue due to line combinations, power play usage, and crowd-driven pace. Blended in at 35% weight once 4+ split games exist.

Prior performance against tonight's opponent. Certain defenders suppress playmakers more than others — this data captures that directly.

Composite ranking for points props. Combines scoring volume, recent pace, and TOI. Elite scorers exceed 1.0 pts/game consistently.

Three form windows weighted L3 (45%) + L5 (35%) + season (20%). Points props are highly streak-driven — a player on a 3-game point streak is far more valuable than his season average suggests.

Increased deployment = more opportunities for points. A player whose L5 TOI is up 10%+ from his season average is likely in a better role or carrying more offensive responsibility.

Points production can vary by venue — home crowds, line matchups, and power play deployment all differ. Blended in at 35% weight once 4+ split games exist.

Performance vs tonight's specific opponent. In a playoff series, this is often the single most predictive factor — you're facing the same system and the same defensive pairings repeatedly.